Friday 16 September 2011

Introduction

To expand a little on my profile. I am an active financier working in London and have a broad interest in the financial markets, alternative investments and economics. I have started this blog primarily to record my thoughts and actions in real time rather than looking back with the considerable bias of hindsight to explain events and actions.

I'm an avid reader of any genres and will be commenting on new theories and practises I encounter and what I feel that I can learn and use. At the time of beginning this blog the developed world is still very unsure and unsettled the economic situation. The 'credit crunch' and failure of Lehman Brothers is now around 3 years old although there seems to be little light at the end of the tunnel. Bank lending and liquidity is still severly restricted and the extent to which banks require to raise new capital is still not fully known, particularly in Europe. However whilst Governments make statements about banks needed to lend to small businesses at the same time they are imposign stricter regulations. Whilst most would welcome regulations to prevent economic catosthrophe like we've seen over the sub-prime crisis, we've also seen this reaction after every recession and all it does is try to address issues that caused the last crisis and not fundamental market issues that may already be contributing to the next. Also like it or not the politicians tend to think politics before economics so the current trend of 'banker bashing' is likely to continue, whether or not it actually helps or harms the economy. (nb I'm not a banker!)

I'm also interested in the differing opinions of respected economic advisers and successful practisioners such as George Soros who's investment decisions often contradict traditional and widely believed economic theories such as market equilibrium. However with Soros' investment record surely he has to be winning over some of his critics and for those who've read his reflexivity theory there is a good dose of common sense - something many investment decisions lack. Will economic theory, as taught to the next batch of bankers and CEOs, catch up with the practises of the most successful hedge fund managers?

Finally a quick point on the blog title - many investors define themselves by either being a 'top down' or 'bottom up'  strategists. I don't really see how you can make an investment decision without considering the wider economic context or without specific research into who or what you are investing in so the two shouldn't be mutually exclusive.

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